CATTLE MARKET UPDATE – APRIL 2025

Source: MLA

Heavy NSW turnoff buckles prices
Despite global beef demand proving resilient to mounting cost of living pressures, Australian cattle prices have succumbed to forced turnoff in New South Wales (NSW) and a seasonal increase in Queensland (Qld) supply. Since peaking in the second week of March, cattle values have slumped 7 to 20 per cent with restocker heifers and cows most affected.
It has been extremely dry from south of the Warrego Highway in Qld, right through to southern NSW since late in 2025. This has forced a sustained turnoff as feed reserves dwindled with little prospect of autumn fodder crops to get stock through winter. Our agents suggest that there is another 3 to 4 weeks of heavy turnoff as producers strip herds back to their breeding nucleus ahead of winter.
Falls in cattle prices were mostly largely supply driven with demand holding up well in our key export markets with year to March exports up 17 per cent driven by China (+35 per cent), Korea (+29 per cent) and the US (+17 per cent).
Another factor that has impacted cattle values is increased supply chain costs because of the war in the Middle East (affecting freight, packaging, grain). Unless these higher costs can be passed onto the consumer, they will work back through the supply chain and pressure cattle prices.
While southern markets should soon get a reprieve from extreme levels of supply, as turnoff across the south eases seasonally entering winter, Queensland supplies are ramping up. A dry spell through Queensland is allowing graziers who have had stock locked up since late in 2025, to conduct first round musters and offload cattle to generate much needed cash flow. Queensland feedlots and processors bookings have quickly moved out to 6 to 8 weeks forward. Southern processors who have been buying as many cattle as they need out of NSW will soon move north, helping to relieve some of the Queensland supply pressure.
Australian beef export prices to the US continue to hold at near record levels, supported by high US domestic lean beef values and low US cow slaughter, despite increasing competition from south America. US beef production is down 6 per cent across the year to March.
US demand for imported beef has underpinned the global market over the past few years and will be called on to do more heavy lifting to absorb increased beef supply from Australia and Brazil as Chinese beef import restrictions start to bite mid-year. With rising fuel costs further tightening shopping budgets and beef losing competitiveness to white meats, US beef demand will be challenged in 2026.

North Asian buying ahead of import restrictions supports prices

Heavy steer values have not been immune to the general pullback in Australian cattle prices over the past month. The national saleyard indicator fell 12 per cent from 460 to 405c/kg liveweight (lw).
Over the same period Queensland’s over the hooks rates have eased from 830c/kg top 765c/kg dressed weight (dw), while southern processors have reduced bids to from 870 to 840c/kg dw. This highlights the different supply dynamic between the north and south. Grassfed program cattle have held their value at around 900c/kg dw as southern supplies start to tighten seasonally.
Over coming months differences in supply between the north and south will widen, with heavy cattle across the south becoming harder to find and Queensland supplies lifting seasonally. The good season being enjoyed by most in Queensland has meant that cattle are heavier than normal across the north.
Demand for heavy cattle has been supported by the fast pace of exports to China and Korea as exporters race to ship beef ahead of safeguard tariffs which are likely to be triggered mid-year.
Australian exporters have filled around 65 pc of safeguard quota levels to China and Korea and on current export pace will fill these quotas by early June after which our beef exports to these markets will be levied at 55 pc and 24pc, respectively. Already buying into these markets has begun to take on a more cautious tone in fear of the quota being triggered.
The US market looms as a key relief value for Australian exporters around mid-year as Australian chilled beef exports are diverted from north Asia. US beef demand has remained resilient in the face of a myriad of economic challenges, supported by lower US beef production (down 6pc year to date).
US wholesale beef prices have fallen counter seasonally to below last year’s peak levels. The maintenance of strong US beef demand over its summer grilling season will be critical to global beef prices and prices paid for Australian beef and cattle in H2 2026 as import restrictions are imposed by our key north Asian export markets.

Heavy steer values dependent on US beef demand
The US market looms as a key relief value for Australian exporters around mid-year as Australian chilled beef exports are diverted from north Asia as the triggering of safeguard tariffs slows exports to China and Korea.

Cow values feel the brunt of turnoff, manufacturing beef values holding
Cow prices have fallen sharply by 16pc with the national saleyard average moving from 380c/kg lw to 320c/kg lw in the past month. Much of the downturn has been driven by producers in drought affected areas of Queensland and NSW moving to offload surplus cows. Victorian processors have been filling slaughter schedules with cattle from Dubbo, Inverell, Scone, Gunnedah and Tamworth with some southern works now not quoting with at least two-weeks supply ahead of them. Direct to work quotes in the past month have been wound back 70 to 80c/kg dw in Queensland to 680c/kg dw and from 800-830c/kg to 740c/kg dw in southern NSW, South Australia and Victoria.

Increased processor margins to support cow values
Strengthening cow processing margins due to lower cow values and firm global lean beef values should support values as southern cow availability tightens as we move into late autumn and winter.
The sharp retraction in local cow bids is a result of local processing capacity being overwhelmed by supply as global manufacturing lean beef prices are holding on tight supply. US beef cow slaughter in Q1 2026 slumped to a multi-decade low, with a further decline in the US cow culling rate. Tight US domestic lean beef supply has increased US import demand for Australian lean beef despite a rise in competition from Brazilian beef.
Given firm international lean manufacturing beef prices, the reduction in local cow values is allowing processors to offset additional supply chain costs and maintain margins. This should help underpin cow values, which will start to firm up again as southern cow supply tightens seasonally and southern processors activity in Queensland increases.

Gap widens between northern and southern feeder prices
Feeder cattle prices have performed best of all local cattle categories, falling by 7 and 8 pc for steers and heifers respectively over the past month. Lower feeder entry costs will help offset the jump in grain prices to $440/t Downs feedlot (up $80/t or 22pc in the past month). Key supply areas in southern Queensland and northern NSW are very dry and unlikely to plant much winter crop, given the high cost of inputs and the lack of subsoil moisture.
Northern growers still hold considerable volumes of wheat and barley on farm, but have no interest in selling until they receive planting rains. Traders are doing the sums on bringing barley into Queensland from Western Australia and South Australia, with back of the envelope calculations landing the grain at $460-480/t delivered Downs.
The big offload of cattle through northern and central NSW has raised concerns about future supplies of suitable weight feeder cattle supplies for southern feedlots. This explains why Angus and British cross feeder values have held their own with spreads to Queensland flatback feeders pushing out to 30c/kg British X and 70c/kg Angus. Prices for southern type feeders have held relatively firm while the northern flatback feeder prices eased (from 490c/kg to 460c/kg lw).
Currently many Queensland feedlots are no quote, with enough cattle booked for the foreseeable future.

Global beef demand support feedlot activity
US fed beef production is down around 8 per cent for the year to date. This is supporting strong global demand for high quality chilled grainfed beef. Higher grain prices have tightened feeding margins, but these have been partly offset by lower cattle costs.
US looms as an important market for grainfed beef in H2, 2026.

Restocker values ease as graziers go defensive
Restocker cattle values have fallen significantly as seasonal conditions tighten, and pasture growth slows as the weather turns cold. The national saleyard average for steers was down 14 per cent and heifers were down 20 per cent in a clear indication that graziers have gone on the defensive.
Although some far-southern areas have been picking up regular rain, there has been little runoff so stock water availability is again looming as an issue. Many cattle from the northern selloff have been traded in southern homes as producers rebuild numbers after the past three difficult seasons. Good quality light steers in southern markets were still making $6/kg lw and heavier weaners $5/kg lw up until the last few weeks. However, the lack of follow up rain, combined with the first frost of the season, the easing in slaughter and feed markets and the hike in freight rates have combined to drag the restocker market lower. This market often acts as the best gauge of producer sentiment and undoubtedly this has begun to wane through autumn.

There remains plenty of good buying opportunities from the turnoff in NSW. With temperatures remaining mild in the north, cattle have held their condition quite well and they’re still strong, healthy and right to travel. But as we move further into autumn and the temperature starts to cool down, cattle condition will start to deteriorate, making transport challenging.

Restocker activity wanes with a downturn producer sentiment
The lack of follow up rain, combined with the first frost of the season, the easing in slaughter and feeder markets and the hike in freight costs have combined to drag the restocker market lower.
Restocker activity is now likely to remain constrained through autumn and winter, particularly in the south.

From the Rails
Read what Elders livestock representatives from around Australia are saying about the markets in their regions.
Queensland/Northern Territory
“Charters Towers market is the best indicator of the northern Brahman market. Still not big numbers yet with first round musters underway and the large operators focussing on their breeding operations in the larger country.”
“Those with good road access that are closer in and just getting into their numbers now and are getting cattle together that would have normally gone in January to March. This is keeping a lid on prices with plenty of ships are heading towards Darwin.

“Freight costs between Cloncurry/Townsville to Darwin has widened from 30c/kg to be closer to 50c/kg lw. Cattle prices have adjusted yet but its likely there will be a widening of the spread between northern QLD and Darwin values. QLD producers are looking to sell on a delivered Cloncurry basis.
“It’s not hard to sell good quality cattle with heavy, well-conditioned cows making $3 to 3.20/kg lw, but the penalties for lower quality are increasing.” – Paul McCormick, Livestock Manager, Customer Solutions.
“Queensland feeder job is tough, hard to get a quote. The larger guys bought forward at higher rates, so they are chock full. On the slaughter job, major Queensland processors are out six-weeks, with rates dropping back again 10 to 20c/kg dw with prices down 70c/kg over the last three weeks.”
“Weaner steers have held up ok $5 to 5.50/kg lw with breeders getting a good return. And it’s still a pretty good changeover from feeder steers sold at $2200 to 2300/hd over the past month. Weaner heifers under pressure $3 to 4/kg lw depending on quality and weight, back from $3.50 to 4/kg lw last week. – Nik Hannaford, Livestock Manager, Northern Region.

Victoria
“The Victorian market is very similar to that reported for Tasmania and South Australia, with slaughter cattle under a bit of pressure due to the sell-off further north, but the store market holding up well.”
“Had our first frost over the weekend. It wasn’t a big one, but it’s put a bit of caution into the market. Last week was only in the early teens, temperature wise with miserable sleety sideways rain, indicating that winter is on our doorstep.
“There is not a lot of stock to come forward. We’ve run out of numbers in all categories of livestock. There is a little push on a few cows, anything that’s surplus before it gets too cold and wet and pastures stop growing. Water is also an issue in parts.” – Nick Gray, State Livestock Manager Victoria/Riverina.
“There’s a pocket east of the Newell Highway, from Narrandera to Seymour, that’s not too bad with some green pick still. It would respond to rain if we got some before early May.”
“It’s getting cold in the hills, so it’s starting to flush a few numbers out again.
“West of Narrandera and further north, the worse it gets. I was at Goulburn and Ivanhoe last week. It’s terrible out there, but a lot of their cattle have gone to Broken Hill. There are so many numbers out far western NSW, they’ll probably have to all come home again in September.
“Hay supplies are going to start to get very tight. I have heard hay quoted at $500/t for decent quality already, so you would expect that hay is going to get very expensive this winter.” – Rob Inglis, Livestock Production Manager Victoria/Riverina.

South Australia
“There was a bit of correction in the slaughter cattle market last week. Cows high $3’s/kg lw and under $8/kg dw on the grids. Grassfed yearling program cattle back under $9/kg dw.
“The store cattle market is going along well still. Light stores $6/kg lw up to 260kgs and then back to $5/kg lw depending on weight. Heifers $4.60-5/kg lw depending on weight and type.
“But all in all, good in southeast, SA. But yes, we’d love another rain. Croppers are all up and going and excited.” – Laryn Gogel, Livestock Sales Manager, South Australia.

New South Wales
“Northern New South Wales markets are still getting hammered with supply. Tamworth can’t handle the numbers. Sale was restricted to 4000 head, but they drew for 8,300. Dubbo drew for 14,000 and they will sell around 11,000. So massive numbers and plenty of strain on logistics.”
“Some graziers are out of water, and they have had to offload the lot. Those with water will hang onto their breeders. Some older cows unless they get rid of them in the next couple of weeks will not be fit to load.
“Cattle with condition are selling ok but the store, light cattle are now struggling. So, the little fellas are getting cheaper. A lot of the light 200kgs cattle are in the $3/kg lw range. We are two weeks away from numbers dropping rapidly because the cattle are gone.” – Peter Homann, National Livestock Manager.

Tasmania
“Some reasonably good rains go across the state and a bit of warm weather and late season pasture growth. Parts of the southeast and east coast are running out of water and destocking.”
“The past 10 days has seen a bit of everything with a bit of snow and sleet. There looks to be a good week ahead of us, temperature-wise, so hopefully a good finish to our calf sales this coming Thursday with around 2,000 to go.
“Program grassfed yearlings, $8.40/kg dw and cows $7.20 to 7.40/kg dw depending on where you go, but both abattoirs booked forward. It’s a job to get cows in atm and they are ready to go. The bulk of the yearling cattle are still two or three weeks away.” – Gavin Coombe, State Livestock Manager Tasmania.